Carbon Economy

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Carbon Economy

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2024
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Carbon Economy

Carbon Economy

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in California decreased by 2.4% to 371.1 million metric tons (MMTCO2e) in 2022 compared to 2021. However, 2022 GHG emissions were still 0.8% higher than 2020 but 8.1% lower than 2019, when the world shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This data shows that California is still making progress towards its goal of reducing GHG emissions to 40% below 1990 levels, yet it still has a long way to go. At 371.1 million metric tons (MMTCO2e), the state’s 2022 emissions were 13.8% below 1990 levels. The state now needs to reduce emissions at a rate of 4.2% per year to reach the 2030 target of 40% below 1990 levels, which is much higher than the annual rate of emissions reductions recorded historically.

While the transportation sector remained the largest-emitter, accounting for 38.7% of total emissions in 2022, it has decreased by 13.5% compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. After two consecutive years of high levels of emissions from wildfires in 2020 and 2021, 2023 proved to be a year where wildfire emissions were far lower than the multi-decade averages, releasing an estimated 9.1 million metric tons from carbon dioxide (CO2).¹ The increased precipitation California experienced during last year’s winter helped reducing fires in the short-term, and increase electricity generated from hydropower. The electricity sector has seen dramatic reductions since 2000. Emissions from in-state generation have decreased by 28.6% (-16.9 MMTCO2e) and emissions from imports decreased by 61.9% (-28.5 MMTCO2e). However, emissions from imports have declined significantly in recent years while emissions from in-state generation were higher in 2022 compared to 2017 to 2019.

While most other sectors are not declining as quickly, they are moving in the right direction. For instance, emissions from the agriculture sector fell by 1.7% from 2021 to 2022. The question now is how to continue to reduce emissions at the 4.2% average pace required. Further work will be needed to reduce emissions in harder-to-reach sectors such as transportation, buildings, and the industrial sector.

Nationally, California is the third most carbon-efficient state, after New York and Massachusetts. Its carbon intensity (emissions/GDP) is 53% lower than the national average. The state has shown that it is possible to grow the economy, while lowering emissions. Since 1990, inflation-adjusted GDP per capita is up 97%, while GHG emissions per capita are down 35%. It will take more action, time, and resources to further decarbonize the economy, but the last couple decades offer hope that California can achieve the critical goal set by SB 32 by 2030.

California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decreased by 9.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent (MMTCO₂e) to 371.1 MMTCO₂e in 2022—representing a 2.4% decrease compared to 2021.
The 2022 GHG emissions were 13.8% below the 1990 level of 431 MMTCO₂e and 8.1% lower than to the pre-pandemic amount in 2019.
The transportation sector continues to be the largest-emitting sector in California, comprising 38.7% of the total emissions in 2022. This share has remained relatively steady in recent years.
State data reported 284 wildfires in California, totaling approximately 342,000 acres burned, in 2023.² These 2023 wildfires released an estimated 9.1 MMTCO₂e, similar to 2022.³ Particulate matter emissions (PM2.5 and PM10) each increased slightly from 2022 but were significantly down from 2020 and 2021.
Compared to the GHG emissions in 2021, among the economic sectors, the transportation sector experienced the largest reduction, decreasing by 3.6% (-5.4 MMTCO₂e), followed by the electric power (import) sector, which fell 11.9% (-2.4 MMTCO₂e).

Emissions from the industrial and agriculture sectors decreased by 1.9% (-1.7 MMTCO₂e) and by 1.7% (-0.5 MMTCO₂e), respectively, from 2021 to 2022. Meanwhile, emissions from the electric power (in-state) sector fell slightly by 0.8% (0.4 MMTCO₂e).
GHG emissions from the residential sector increased very slightly by 0.5% (+0.15 MMTCO₂e) from 2021 to 2022.
While emissions decreased in many sectors from 2021 to 2022, the commercial sector had a notable increase year-over-year (+3.7% or +0.8 MMTCO₂e).
In comparison to the pre-pandemic 2019 emissions, the transportation sector experienced the most substantial reduction with a decrease of 13.5%. The primary factor behind this reduction in transportation emissions is because the heavy-duty vehicles sub-sector that saw a decline of 22.1%.
Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 22% since the passage of AB 32 in 2006, including steep cuts in the transportation, industrial and power sectors. Emissions per capita dropped 23% while state GDP per capita increased 38% since 2006, demonstrating California can make progress on climate while growing the economy.

Data

California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Progress and Outlook

In order to meet the SB 32 goal of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, the state must reduce emissions by 4.2% each year according to 2022 GHG emissions. This is a slight increase compared to the 4.0% annual decrease required in 2021 and the 3.3% annual decrease required in 2020.
At the current annual average rate of decrease over the most recent four-year period (2018-2022), which was an average of 2.5% each year, the state must increase annual emissions reductions in order to meet the 2030 and 2050 goals on time.

California recently revised its emissions goal of 80% below 2050 to 85% below 2045. This means that even if California manages to meet the SB 32 target by 2030, the state would need to reduce its emissions at a pace of 8.8% per year to reach the goal by 2045—more than double the pace required to meet the 2030 target.

Data

California’s Carbon Economy

In California, GHG emissions per capita fell by 2.2% (-0.21 MMTCO₂e/person) from 2021 to 2022, while the state’s inflation-adjusted GDP per capita grew by 0.9% over the same time period.
Compared to 2019, GHG emissions per capita in 2022 were down by 7.1% (-0.73 MMTCO₂e/person), while the inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in 2022 was up by 8.0%.
From 2012 to 2022, California’s energy intensity decreased by 33.4%, ahead of the next most populous states: Texas (-21.0%), Pennsylvania (-20.6%), New York (-16.1%), Florida (-28.3%), and Illinois (-23.3%). However, it is behind Georgia (-34.3%).

In addition to performing well in terms of carbon intensity, California also has one of the lowest energy-related GHG emissions per capita levels, with 8.4 MMTCO₂e per person in 2021—edging out every other states including New York and Massachusetts except for Maryland (8.2 MMTCO₂e/person).
The carbon intensity of California’s energy supply (CO₂ relative to British thermal unit) fell 0.9% in 2022 compared to 2021, while that of the U.S. decreased by 0.7%.

Data

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector: Challenges & Opportunities

Within the transportation sector, emissions from on-road vehicles, which make up 90% of transportation’s emissions, were 14.1% (-21.3 MMTCO₂e) lower in 2022 than in 2019. Within the on-road vehicles sub-sector, emissions from heavy-duty vehicles had the largest decline of 22.1% (-7.8 MMTCO₂e) from 2019 levels, followed by the passenger vehicles sub-sector which declined by 11.9% (-13.7 MMTCO₂e).
Emissions from other transportation subsectors (aviation, rail, ships, other, and not specified) fell by 5.5% (-0.9 MMTCO₂e), compared to 2019.
The majority of the year-over-year decrease in transportation sector emissions from 2021 to 2022 can be attributed to the heavy-duty vehicles sector, emissions from which fell by 13.1% (-4.1 MMTCO₂e).
All of the sub-sectors within the transportation sector had lower emissions in 2022 than the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Overall, total emissions in the transportation sector were 13.5% (-22.3 MMTCO₂e) lower in 2022 than the 2019 total emissions.
Distillate (diesel) fuel combustion from heavy-duty trucks accounted for the lion’s share of reduction in heavy-duty vehicle subsector’s emissions, falling 17.5% (-4.0 MMTCO₂e) in 2022 from 2021.
Californians exported or sent 39.5 million tons of waste to landfills in 2022, down 1.3 million tons from 40.8 million tons in 2021, but up 10.2 million tons compared to 29.3 million tons in 2012.

The recycling rate was 41% in 2022, similar to 2021 (42%) and 2020 (40%), but has been falling since 2014, when recycling rate peaked at 50%.
Emissions from the use of substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (substitutes for ODS), which emit high global warming potential (GWP) gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), are the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in California.
In 2022, GHG emissions from substitutes for ODS from all economic sectors accounted for 5.5% of total included statewide emissions, similar to 2021, but considerably larger than in 2006 (2.0%) when AB 32 was signed into law and in 2016 (4.6%) when the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol was signed.
By end-use sectors, in 2022, emissions from substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) fell in the transportation sector (-4.5%) and industrial sector (-0.8%) compared to 2021, but rose in the residential sector (+5.6%) and the commercial sector (+0.5%).
From 2007 to 2022, the residential sector’s share of emissions from substitutes for ODS has risen from 7.8% to 24.6%, and by 28.5% to 44.9% for the commercial sector.
From 2008 to 2022, emissions from the commercial retail sub-sector rose 16.7% and emissions from the industrial solid waste treatment from composting activities increased by 70.0%.