Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Sector and Activity; U.S. Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data Systems
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- On-road light-duty vehicles (passenger cars, light-duty trucks & SUVs, and motorcycles) accounted for over 70% of the transportation sector’s emissions with 102.4 MMTCO2e altogether. Emissions from this subsector fell slightly by 1.8% (-1.9 MMTCO2e) in 2022 compared to 2021 and represents 71.3% of the transportation sector’s total emissions in 2022. This is up from 70.0% in 2021 because emissions from heavy-duty vehicles (heavy-duty trucks, buses, and motorhomes) fell even faster. Compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic), emissions from light-duty vehicles were down 12.1% (-14.1 MMTCO2e) in 2022. Of which, emissions are down 14.0% (-7.6 MMTCO2e) from passenger cars and 10.1% (-6.0 MMTCO2e) from light-duty trucks and SUVs.
- Emissions from heavy-duty trucks (which make up over 90% of heavy-duty vehicles subsector’s emissions) fell by 13.3% (-4.0 MMTCO2e) from 2021 to 2022, and emissions were 22.0% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles subsectors emissions are down significantly from 2019 despite similar levels of fuel consumption within the transportation sector (2,200 trillion British thermal units), thanks to the state’s continuous efforts to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions. The GHG emissions per unit of fuel consumed were 5.82 MMTCO2e/hundred trillion Btu in 2022, down 13.4% from 2019 and by 6.0% from 2021.
Opportunity
- The federal government is now aligned with California’s goals in electrifying the transportation sector. First, in September 2020, Governor Newsom signed Executive Order N-79-20, which sets the goal of 100% of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks to be zero-emission by 2035.15 Furthermore, in August 2021, President Biden announced a goal of having half of the vehicles sales be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030.16 California surpassed its goal of 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 in April 2023.17 Additionally, 25% of new car sales in Q2 2023 were ZEVs, while ZEV truck sales exceeded goals by 1.5% in 2022, making up 7.5% of new truck sales.18 Nine more states are following California’s lead in ending the sale of new vehicles with internal combustion engines.19 The Biden-Harris Administration allocated nearly $150 million across 20 states to upgrade 4,500 public EV chargers, enhancing reliability and accessibility, supporting their goal of 500,000 chargers by 2030.20
15 Specifically, The Executive Order has the following additional goals: (1) 100 percent of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the State be zero-emission by 2045 for all operations where feasible and by 2035 for drayage trucks; (2) California to transition to 100 percent zero-emission off-road vehicles and equipment by 2035 where feasible. Executive Order N-79-20 can be viewed here: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf
16 The White House. “FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Steps to Drive American Leadership Forward on Clean Cars and Trucks.” August 5, 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements- releases/2021/08/05/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-steps-to-drive-american-leadership-forward-on-clean-cars-and-trucks/
17 Office of Governor. California Surpasses 1.5 millions ZEVs Goal Two Years Ahead of Schedule. April 21, 2023. Assessed Feb 7, 2024. Available at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/04/21/california-surpasses-1-5-million-zevs-goal-two-years-ahead-of schedule/
18 Governor of California. California Hits ZEV Truck Sales Goal Two Years Ahead of Schedule. October 23, 2023. Accessed Feb 7, 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/10/23/california-hit-zev-truck-sales-goal-two-years-ahead-of-schedule/
19 CNET. These 9 States Are Banning the Sale of Gas-Powered Cars. Sep 7, 2023. Assessed Feb 7, 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/states-banning-new-gas-powered-cars/
20 U.S. Department of Transportation. Biden-Harris Administration Announces Grants to Upgrade Almost 4,500 Public Electric Vehicle Chargers. Jan 18, 2024. Assessed Feb 7, 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/biden-harris-administration-announces-grants-upgrade-almost-4500-public-electric
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