Data Source: Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- Since 2000, GHG emissions have decreased by 19.8% (-91.8 MMTCO2e) in 2022. After the brief rebound in 2021, emissions have resumed a downward trend at a similar pace with the trend observed from 2010 to 2019. From 2000 to 2022, emissions declined at a pace of 1.0% per year. However, since 2007—the year after AB 32 became law and when emissions peaked in California—emissions have declined at a pace of 1.8% per year.
- California released the world’s first plan to achieve net-zero carbon pollution in late 2022 with the new Scoping Plan.10 The new roadmap revised the state’s previous 2050 emissions goal of 80% below 1990 levels to the new goal of reducing emissions to 85% below 1990 levels by 2045.11 However, even if California manages to meet the SB 32 target by 2030, to reach the goal by 2045, the state would need to reduce its emissions at a pace of 8.8%—more than double the pace required to meet the SB 32 target.
10 Office of Governor Gavin Newsom. California Releases World’s First Plan to Achieve Net Zero Carbon Pollution. November 16, 2022. Accessed October 3, 2024. Available at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/11/16/california-releases-worlds-first-plan-to-achieve-net-zero-carbon-pollution/
11 According to California Air Resources Board’s scoping plan, the 85 percent emissions reductions will be achieved by cutting air pollution by 71%, reducing fossil fuel consumption by 86%, and reaching carbon neutrality by 2045. The scoping plan can be viewed here: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-releases-final-2022-climate-scoping-plan-proposal
Challenge
- The annual average reduction required to meet the SB 32 goal of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 is 4.2% as of 2022—more than double the average reduction from 2007 to 2022. Using average annual rate of decline from 2018 to 2022 of 2.5%, the state will take significantly more time to reach its SB 32 (258.4 MMTCO2e by 2030) and 2050 goals (84.1 MMTCO2e by 2050) than it did to reach the 2020 goal. California is currently not on track to meet the target by 2030. Using the rate of reduction from 2018 to 2022, California would meet the 2030 goal in 2037.