Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Scoping Plan
Note: GHG emissions by scoping plan category in 2030 is based on the updated California PATHWAYS Model provided by E3.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- From 2007 (when emissions peaked) to 2022, California has reduced emissions by 113.7 MMTCO2e. California needs to reduce emissions by about the same amount (112.7 MMTCO2e) to reach its SB 32 target by 2030. The electric power sector is the only sector where emissions reductions are already greater than 40% relative to 1990. Recycling & waste and high global warming potential (GWP) are the two smallest GHG emissions categories by scoping plan, yet these are the only sectors where emissions have been trending slightly upward every year.
- The pandemic rebound observed in 2021 did not continue in 2022 for most sectors as defined by the scoping plan except for the commercial and residential (buildings) sector. The electric power sector had the highest percentage decrease (-4.1% or -2.6 MMTCO2e) from 2021 to 2022, followed by the transportation sector (-3.6% or -5.2 MMTCO2e) and the industrial sector (-2.0% or -1.5 MMTCO2e).
Challenges
- In the electric power sector, the decrease in emissions is primarily due to cleaner imports; emissions from in-state generation remained above pre-pandemic levels due to the drought conditions since 2019 threatening the electricity grid’s reliability. Moving forward, incremental emissions reductions would need to come from the in-state generation subsector, and it will likely require significant efforts just to keep up the pace of GHG emission reductions in the electric power sector.
- Emissions from the high GWP sector—which mainly consist of substitutes of ozone-depleting substances (substitutes for ODS) for refrigeration and air conditioning—have been trending in the wrong direction for at least two decades.12 Emissions from high GWP sector increased by 2.2 times from 2000 (6.6 MMTCO2e) to 2022 (21.3 MMTCO2e). However, its rate of increase is slowing; instead its emissions have been stuck at 21.3 MMTCO2e since 2020.
12 Other scoping plan categories in the high global warming potential sector include semiconductor manufacturing and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) released from electricity transmission and distribution. Use of substitutes for ODS is by far the largest GHG emitting high GWP category, making up 98 percent of the high GWP sector’s emissions in 2022, up from 84 percent in 2000.
More About
Carbon Economy
Related Content