Data Source: California Energy Commission
Analysis by Beacon Economics
Highlight
- Electricity generation from RPS-eligible renewables increased by 761 gigawatt-hours (GWh) from 2022 to 2023, the second smallest year-over-year increase since 2008.72 The increase in total RPS percentage is primarily due to the increase in small hydro, but is offset by a decrease in generation from solar (-2.3%), the first time when year-over-year generation fell. Solar and wind are the largest renewable sources, making up 17.0% and 11.2%, respectively, of the state’s total power mix. From 2022 to 2023, solar energy as percent of total power mix held steady despite lower generation due to the decrease in power mix as well, which fell from 287.2 GWh in 2022 to 281.1 GWh in 2023. Meanwhile, wind energy’s contribution to the power mix increased slightly (+0.4%) from 31.1 GWh in 2022 to 31.4 GWh in 2023. This is due to a small increase in new wind capacity added (+95 MW from 2022 to 2023).
72 Non-RPS eligible sources include fossil energy, coal, natural gas, nuclear, other unspecific sources and large hydro.
Challenge
- Generation for other RPS-eligible renewables remained stagnant as installed capacity has been falling gradually for biomass (1,262 MW in 2023 compared to 1,321 MW in 2019) and stagnant for geothermal (2,744 MW in 2023 compared to 2,712 MW in 2019). Electricity generation from these sources, which totaled 19,357 GWh in 2023, were 8.4% lower than the total in 2013 (21,121 GWh). Installed capacity for small hydro has also remained relatively unchanged over time (1,764 MW in 2023 versus 1,762 MW in 2019), but its generation is greatly affected by drought. It’s unclear whether California will return to extreme drought conditions and whether generation from small hydro is expected to continue to be limited.
Opportunity
- In September 2023, Governor Newsom signed into law a slate of bills to accelerate critical infrastructure projects across California to help build a 100% clean electric grid, ensure safe drinking water, boost the state’s water supply, and modernize our transportation system.73 On October 9, 2023, AB 1373 was signed into law, which enabled the Department of Water Resources (DWR) to serve as a central procurement entity.74 The bill is aimed at facilitating the buildout of offshore wind and geothermal, and it addresses various aspects of energy policy in California—aiming to enhance renewable energy integration, offshore wind development, resource procurement, and transmission project evaluation.
73 Office of Governor. Governor Newsom Signs Infrastructure & Budget Legislation to Build More, Faster. Released July 10, 2023. Assessed Aug 25, 2023. Available at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/07/10/governor-newsom-signs-infrastructure-budget-legislation-to-build-more-faster/
74 “AB 1373: Vital to Meeting CA’s Energy Goals Reliably and Affordably.” NRDC, September 6, 2023. Available at: https://www.nrdc.org/bio/mohit-chhabra/ab-1373-vital-meeting-cas-energy-goals-reliably-and-affordably
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