Note: Renewables do not include large hydroelectric sources exceeding 30 megawatts. Data Source: California Energy Commission; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlight
- California has a legally mandated goal of renewable generation increasing to 44% of retail sales by December 31, 2024, 52% by December 31, 2027, 60% by December 31, 2030, and 100% by 2045. So far, California has comfortably met the SB 1078 goal of procuring 20% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by 2017 and barely met the SB 2x1 goal of procuring 33% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by 2020.
Challenges
- California’s RPS-eligible renewable sources totaled 36.9% of the state’s power mix in 2023, up 1.1% from 2022, and will likely miss the interim SB 100 goal of procuring 44% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by the end of 2024. If holding California’s power mix the same as in 2023, this means California will need to increase RPS-eligible renewable by 19.4% in 2024—an unlikely scenario.
- To meet the 2026 goal of 50% of generation from RPS-eligible renewable sources, a target set by earlier legislation, California’s share of electricity generation from renewables would need to increase by 4.4% each year from 2023 to 2026, revised upward from 3.5% previously. To reach the 2027 goal of 52%, the share of electricity generation from renewables would need to increase by 3.8% each year from 2023 to 2027. To meet the 2030 goal of 60%, the share of electricity generation from renewables would need to increase by 3.3% annually from 2023 to 2030.
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