Note: Renewables do not include large hydroelectric sources exceeding 30 megawatts.
Data Source: California Energy Commission; U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlight
- Despite missing the goal, California’s share of RPS-eligible renewable sources to the state’s power mix rose by 4.4% from 2023 to 2024 — the fastest pace on record. At this pace of 4.4%, California should be able to meet its next interim goal of 50% by 2026. However, using the most recent five-year average growth rate of 1.9%, California’s renewable generation would only be 45.1% in 2026 and the state wouldn’t meet the goal of at least 50% from renewable sources until 2029.
Challenge
- California has a legally mandated goal of renewable generation increasing to 44% of retail sales by December 31, 2024, 52% by December 31, 2027, 60% by December 31, 2030, and 100% by 2045. The goal of 100% of retail electricity sales being clean by 2045 includes eligible renewables and zero-carbon resources such as nuclear energy. In the past, California comfortably met the SB 1078 (2002) goal of procuring 20% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by 2017 but barely met the SB 2x1 (2011) goal of procuring 33% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by 2020. However, California missed the interim SB 100 (2018) goal of procuring 44% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by 2024, ending with 41.3% instead.
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