Data Source: California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Sector and Activity, California Air Resources Board; Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) remained well below the pre-pandemic peak. In 2023, VMT in California totaled 316.6 billion miles, up 1.4 billion miles or 0.4% from 2022, but remained 9.2% below the 343.9 billion miles recorded in 2018. The number of registered vehicles stayed flat (+0.1%) from 2022 to 2023 and remained 2.9% below 2018’s peak of 32.0 million vehicles.
- GHG emissions from surface transportation decreased 4.1% (or 5.3 MMTCO2e) from 2022 to 2023 despite rising VMT. The surprising drop in emissions came primarily from the heavy-duty vehicles subsector, where emissions declined by 17.2% (or 4.1 MMTCO2e). GHG emissions from surface transportation in 2023 were well below pre-pandemic levels: 17.6% (or 26.6 MMTCO2e) lower than in 2019.
- Not only have emissions from surface transportation and VMT remained below pre-2020 levels, emissions per VMT have also remained below pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, emission per VMT averaged 0.39 tons of CO2-equivalent (TCO2e ) per 1,000 vehicle miles traveled. Not only is this ratio the lowest it has ever been, but it is also 6.4% less than the 0.42 TCO2e per 1,000 VMT in 2020, when on-road transportation activities were muted due to the pandemic shutdown. As more electric vehicles (EVs) are deployed and reach mainstream adoption, replacing existing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) as well as heavy-duty vehicles increasingly switching to renewable and/or biodiesel in lieu of petroleum diesel, emissions from surface transportation are expected to gradually decline.
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