Note: New light vehicles only and does not include used vehicles and vehicles coming off lease. Cars include subcompact, compact, mid-size, large sedans, and sports cars. Light trucks include pickup trucks, mini vans, large vans, and SUVs.
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian, California New Car Dealers Association.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlight
- In 2024, the share of new registrations from light-duty pickup trucks, mini-vans, and SUVs reached a new height, breaking 70% for the first time, making up 72.7% of new light duty vehicle registrations—up from 69.4% in 2023. The apparent and continuous shift toward bigger vehicles by Californians is due to the proliferation of crossover-SUVs, which share several similarities to passenger cars despite being classified as light trucks.38 New vehicle registrations flatlined in 2024, totaling 1.76 million vehicles (-0.3%). In 2024, total light truck registrations increased from 1.22 million vehicles to 1.23 million vehicles (+4.4%) while car sales dropped 10.9% from 539,900 to 480,900—less than half a million for the first time.
38 California New Car Dealers Association. California Auto Outlook, vol. 21, no. 1. January 2025. Assessed May 18, 2025. Available at: https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-eoy-2024-auto-outlook-report/
Challenge
- After making great strides in 2023, new battery electric vehicles’ (BEV) and fuel-cell electric vehicles’ (FCEV) market share stalled in 2024. New BEVs and FCEVs registered totaled 387,400 units, growing just 1.2% compared to 2023. Their market share rose modestly from 21.7% to 22.0% of total new vehicles registered in California year-over-year. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) fared slightly better, with 60,800 new vehicles registered, representing an increase of 2.2% from 2023. Together, new BEV and PHEV registrations totaled a quarter (25.5%) of new vehicle registrations in 2024. Although Tesla Model Y and Model 3 were the best-selling and second best-selling vehicles in the light trucks and passenger cars categories, respectively, these vehicles have reported lower sales in 2025 year-to-date (global deliveries fell 13.5% in the second quarter of 2025).39 Since much of California’s ZEV growth comes from Tesla, it is possible that 2025 will be the first year where ZEV sales are lower than the previous year.40
39 Akash Sriram, “Tesla deliveries slump, Musk’s EV maker stares at second year of falling sales.” Reuters. July 2, 2025. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-quarterly-deliveries-fall-sharper-than-analysts-estimates-2025-07-02/
40 California New Car Dealers Association. California Auto Outlook, vol. 21, no. 1. April 2025. Accessed May 18, 2025. Available at: https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-25.pdf
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