2024 California Green Innovation Index 16th edition

California Green Innovation Index

The 16^th annual California Green Innovation Index is primarily digital, allowing readers to learn and interact with the findings of the report and dive even deeper into the data through interactive charts. This year’s data shows that there has been 22% drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 16 years, including steep cuts in transportation, industrial, and power sector pollution. Emissions per capita have dropped by 23% while state GDP per capita increased 38% since 2006—showing that California can both make progress on climate and grow the economy.

The report finds total greenhouse gas emissions fell between 2021 and 2022, dropping by 2.4% to 371.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO₂e). This decrease followed a 3.4% increase in emissions from 2020 to 2021 as the economy began to re-open. However, total statewide emissions remain 8.1% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Most of the decrease in emissions came from the transportation sector, which fell by 3.6% from 2021 to 2022. This was driven by a 13.1% decrease in emissions from the heavy-duty vehicles sub-sector, while emissions from light-duty vehicles also fell by 2.4%.

Within the transportation sector, California met the 2025 goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on-road two years early in April 2023. In 2023, new battery electric vehicles accounted for 21.5% of total new vehicles registered in California and the percentage of registered vehicles on-road that are ZEVs reached 5.2%. The Index’s encouraging data on electric vehicle sales contrasts sharply with its findings on public transit ridership, which remained 29.5% below the pre-pandemic 2019 level in 2023, despite a 15% increase in ridership from 2022 to 2023.

To meet the 2030 target of nearly 260 MMTCO₂e (or 40% below 1990 levels), California would need to reduce emissions by 4.2% annually on average. This is up from the 4% needed in 2021 and the 3.3% needed in 2020 (due to the large drop in emissions due to COVID). Over the most recent four-year period (2018 to 2022), emissions have only decreased by 2.5% annually on average. Using this trajectory, the state would meet the 2030 goal in 2037. Even if the state met the 2030 goal on time, emissions would need to fall at a pace of 8.8% per year to reach the goal by 2045—more than double the pace required to meet the 2030 target.

Among the other economic sectors, emissions from in-state electric power generation have also increased in recent years—a worrying indicator after years of reliable decreases. From 2019 to 2022, emissions grew by 9.5%—the largest increase of any sector over that time period. However, emissions from imports decreased by 19.2% over the same time period, resulting in an overall 0.8% decrease in emissions from the electric power sector. From 2021 to 2022, overall electric power emissions fell by 4.3%, driven by a large decrease from imports (-11.9%) and a much smaller decrease from in-state generation (-0.8%). The rise in emissions from in-state generation of electricity is likely due in part to summer heat waves and a lack of robust renewable energy growth in recent years. Additionally, California’s once-held advantage of having a lower average residential electricity bill compared to the rest of the U.S. vanished in the wake of the pandemic. In 2012, the margin stood at 20.4% below the national average, but as of 2022, it had shifted to 2.2% higher than the U.S. average.

Growth in the amount of renewable energy being generated in California has slowed considerably since 2018—it increased by only 1.1% to 36.9% of California’s total power mix (imports and in-state but excluding large hydro) from 2022 to 2023. Given this, the state will likely miss the interim SB 100 goal of procuring 44% of retail electricity sales from RPS-eligible renewable sources by the end of 2024. To meet the 2026 goal of 50% of generation from RPS-eligible renewable sources, California’s share of electricity generation from renewables would need to increase by 4.4% each year from 2023 to 2026, revised upward from 3.5% previously. While California still has a sizable lead in generation from renewables (36.9% in California vs. 15.3% in the rest of the U.S.), the pace of growth has slowed in California compared to the U.S. relative to 2008. Solar and wind are the largest renewable sources, making up 17% and 11.2% percent, respectively, of the state’s total power mix.

While growth in renewable energy generation has not kept pace with our targets, the state has brought online a substantial amount of battery storage and very little new natural gas generation. While there has been a larger increase in new energy storage nationwide from 2022 to 2023 (+23% in California and +117% in the rest of the U.S.), California accounted for 44% of new energy storage added nationwide in 2023. In 2023, California Independent System Operator (CAISO) interconnected queue increased from 2,837 MW in 2022 to 3,482 MW in 2023—the highest since 2013. In the past, natural gas and solar dominated the interconnection queue, but solar (1,628 MW) and battery storage (1,854 MW) made up the entire interconnection queue in 2023. Due to the increased popularity of pairing solar PV projects with battery storage, by secondary generation technology, battery storage (1,312 MW) alone accounted for all capacity in interconnection queue, up 125% from 2022. From 2014 to 2023, the state retired 12.3 GW of utility-scale power plants, mostly from natural gas (10.9 GW).

Emissions from the residential and commercial sectors have also been increasing. From 2021 to 2022, emissions from the residential sector grew by 0.5% and by 3.7% in the commercial sector. However, emissions from the residential sector remained 1.1% below the pre-pandemic level, while commercial sector emissions were 1.6% greater in 2022 compared to 2019. One of the main reasons for this increase is emissions from substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (SODs), which are used for refrigeration and cooling. These emissions increased by 0.6% from 2021 to 2022 and by 2.9% since the pre-pandemic 2019 level. Emissions from SODS, which emit high global warming potential (GWP) gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), are the fastest-growing source of GHG emissions in California—they were 2.2 times higher in 2022 compared to 2000.