Transportation

Transportation, California’s largest energy-consuming and greenhouse-gas-emitting sector, accounted for almost 40% of the state’s GHG emissions. At the same time, the state has witnessed some positive developments in the transportation sector, such as a slight decrease in car ownership rates and an increase in public transit ridership, though still well below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption continues to accelerate especially for the pickup truck and SUV segments, where consumer preferences have shifted as more models become available. However, the Golden State faces a $68 billion budget deficit, which could jeopardize its efforts to reduce transportation emissions.35

In an impressive achievement, zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) reached a quarter of new vehicle sales in 2023. By the end of 2023, 1,516,107 ZEVs were on the road, accounting for a 5.2% of the total vehicles registered in the state. Additionally, ZEV sales remain strong, as the California Energy Commission announced that Californians purchased 102,507 ZEVs in the first quarter of 2024 – the highest ever for the first quarter of any year.36 California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state also surpassed its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) truck sales goal two years ahead of schedule. The EV truck sales goal, set at 6% of new trucks sold in California by 2024, was reached in 2022, with 7,639 ZEV trucks sold. In total, 7.5% of all new trucks sold in the state in 2022 were zero-emission vehicles.37

However, as economic activities continued to resume in California, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita from 2021 to 2022 rose 2.0%. To achieve the GHG emissions reduction targets by 2030, reach percentage sales requirement of Advanced Clean Cars II, and attain net carbon neutrality by 2045, it is crucial that the upward trend in ZEV adoption continues while simultaneously reducing VMT.

Transportation Emissions and Vehicle Ownership
  • Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased by 1.4% from 2021 to 2022. Total VMT in 2022 was 7.5% lower than in 2019.

  • In 2023, the vehicle ownership rate was 75.1 per 100 persons, down from 74.9 in 2022.

  • In 2023, zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) accounted for 3.9 and 4.0 vehicles per 100 persons, respectively—the highest ever for both categories.

  • After a year of supply chain issues and vehicle production cutbacks in 2022, new vehicle registration rebounded by 11.9% in 2023, totaling 1.8 million vehicles (+11.9%). However, this is still below pre-pandemic levels of two million new vehicles registered per year.

  • Total new light-duty pickup trucks, mini-vans, and SUVs registrations rose 13.9% from 2022 to 2023. Collectively, these vehicles made up 69.5% of new light-duty vehicle registrations—up from 68.3% in 2022.

  • Consumer preferences continue to shift away from subcompact, compact, mid-size, and large sedans toward SUVs and larger cars, despite registrations for smaller cars rising by 7.7% from 2022 to 2023.

  • From 2021 to 2022, VMT per registered vehicle increased by 2.2% (or 215 miles) to 10,130 miles. VMT per capita was 8,059 miles per person in 2022, a rise of 2.0% over 2021, due to a declining population.

Zero-Emission Vehicles
  • In 2023, new BEVs registered accounted for 21.5% of total new vehicles registered in California—the first time that BEVs broke the 20% market share threshold.

  • In 2023, BEV registrations totaled about 380,000 vehicles, an increase of 46.0 compared to 2022. 2023 sales alone were more than the combined sales from 2014 to 2019, which totaled 371,000 BEVs.

  • The market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) rebounded from 2.7% in 2022 to 3.4% of total new vehicles registered in 2023.

  • After suffering slumping sales in 2022, new PHEVs registered increased in 2023 by an equally impressive 40.1% with just under 60,000 units registered.

  • The number of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on-road in California reached 1,516,107 as of the end of 2023, an increase of 36.5% compared to 2022. This includes about 1,115,708 BEVs, 386,411 PHEVs, and about 14,000 hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs). Despite vehicle prices being a major concern in 2022, the number of ZEVs registered continued to increase at a higher rate in recent years.

  • To reach the next goal of 5 million ZEVs on-road by 2030, new registrations in California need to increase by an annual average of 18.6% from 2025 to 2030, down from a previous estimate of 24.0% from 2024 to 2030 thanks to accelerating ZEV adoption.

  • The percentage of registered vehicles on-road that are ZEVs broke five percent (5.2% of total vehicles) in 2023, almost doubling its share from 2021 (2.7%).

  • The number of electric light-duty pickups, SUVs and vans registered in 2023 hit an all-time high of 654,405, up 71.3% compared to 2022.

  • After years of downward trends, the number of clean vehicle rebates claimed ballooned to over 90,000 rebates in 2023, surpassing the previous peak of 73,392 rebates claimed in 2018.

  • The share of equity groups—people living in disadvantaged communities (as defined by CalEnviroScreen 3.0)38 and low-income communities (as defined by Assembly Bill 1550)39 –who have taken advantage of the rebate has been steadily increasing over the last few years. In 2023, approximately 34.1% of the rebates went to either of these groups—the highest share on record. This is up from 32.2% in 2022, and is likely the result of an increase in the rebate amount and adjustments to the income cap.

  • Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for over 94% of clean-vehicle rebates in 2023, up from 88% in 2022.

  • In California, the share of ZEVs among all registered vehicles grew in all metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2023. Moreover, the non-MSA rural area rate has surpassed two percent, reaching 2.3% in 2023.

Clean Transportation’s Future
  • As of July 29, 2024, there were 53,079 public Level 1, Level 2, and DC fast-charging stations in California—or 10.4% of the 508,000 public and DC fast charging (DCFC) stations needed to achieve the goal in Executive Order N-79-20.

  • Level 2 charging stations make up three-fourths (76%) of charging stations and DC fast charging stations (DCFC) make up 22.7% of them.

  • Rural MSAs tend to have a higher ratio of charging stations to ZEVs registered than urban MSAs. Hanford-Corcoran, where ZEV made up just 1.2% of total vehicles registered in 2023, has the highest rate of charging station per EV (0.17), followed by Madera (0.12) and Napa (0.09).

  • Compared to July 2023, the number of charging station per EV declined in all MSAs except for Merced (+38.9%), Modesto (+30.0%), Redding (+41.3%), Visalia-Porterville (+15.8%), and Yuba City (+11.0%)—all rural regions.

  • Production of gasoline (-8.7%) and diesel (-29.5%) continued to trend below 2019 levels in 2023. Compared to 2022, production of gasoline (+1.2%) and diesel (-9.5%) totaled 439.2 million barrels, down 1.2% overall in 2023.

  • Meanwhile, unlinked passenger trips (UPTs, which represent the number of times passengers aboard public transportation vehicles), were 29.5% lower in 2023 than the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Footnotes

35 Legislative Analyst Office. The 2024-25 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook. December 7, 2023. Assessed August 24, 2024. Available at: https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819

36 California Energy Commission. “Zero-Emission Vehicle Sales Remain Strong in California” May 1, 2024. Accessed August 9, 2024. Available at: https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2024-05/zero-emission-vehicle-sales-remain-strong-california

37 Governor of California. California Hits ZEV Truck Sales Goal Two Years Ahead of Schedule. October 23, 2023. Accessed August 27, 2024. Retrieved from:  https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/10/23/california-hit-zev-truck-sales-goal-two-years-ahead-of-schedule/

38 The CalEnviroScreen3.0 can be view here: https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30

39 The Assembly Bill 1550 can be view here: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220AB1550