Source: California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Sector and Activity, California Air Resources Board; Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- After a pandemic rebound in 2021, the total number of vehicles registered declined slightly while vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rose modestly in 2022. Between 2021 and 2022, VMT in California rose by 1.4% (or 4.4 billion miles) to 315.2 billion miles. Meanwhile, the number of registered vehicles dropped 0.7% (or 230 thousand vehicles) year-over-year. This is due to the record high new and used vehicle prices, which contributed to lower vehicle sales in 2022.
- GHG emissions from surface transportation decreased 4.2% or 5.7 MMTCO2e from 2021 to 2022 despite rising VMT. The surprising drop in emissions came primarily from the heavy-duty vehicles subsector, where emissions declined by 4.1 MMTCO2e. GHG emissions from surface transportation in 2022 were well below pre-pandemic levels: 14.1% (or 21.3 MMTCO2e) lower than in 2019.
- Not only have emissions from surface transportation and VMT have remained below pre-2020 levels, emission per VMT has also remained below pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, emission per VMT averaged 0.41 ton of CO2-equivalent per 1,000 vehicle miles traveled. Not only is this ratio the lowest it has ever been, it is also eight percent less than the 0.45 TCO2e per 1,000 VMT averaged during the 2015 to 2019 period. As more electric vehicles (EVs) are deployed and reach mainstream adoption, replacing existing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), emissions from surface transportation are expected to gradually decline.
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