Data Source: Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics, California Energy Commission.
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- To reach the 2030 goal of 5 million ZEVs on-road, ZEV registrations in California need to increase by an annual average of 17.5% from 2025 to 2030, revised downwards from the 18.6% required previously between 2024 to 2030. While 2024’s year-over-year growth rate (+25.3%) pulled the previous average downward, despite stagnating sales of new ZEVs, California cannot rest on its laurels. 2025 is projected to be the first year where new EV sales and registrations trails behind the previous year. Ultimately, California needs to maintain the current momentum to accomplish the goals of Advanced Clean Cars II, which requires an increasing number of ZEVs sales each year until the 2035 goal of 100% of new vehicle sales.45
- The percentage of registered vehicles on-road that are ZEVs reached 6.5% in 2024, up from 5.2% in 2023. BEVs made up 5.0% of vehicles on road in 2024, up from 3.8% in 2023. PHEVs made up 1.5% of vehicles on the road in 2024, up from 1.3%in 2023.
45 California Air Resources Board. Advanced Clean Cars II. Accessed August 12, 2024. Available at: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/advanced-clean-cars-ii
Challenge
- While Californians bought 124,755 ZEVs in Q3 2025 — a record high that represents 29.1% of all vehicles sold from July through September — ZEV adoption, particularly battery EVs, will likely slow going forward.46 The tax credit of up to $7,500 per new EV and up to $4,000 per used EV, passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, was eliminated beginning October 1, 2025.47 The looming expiration of the tax credit likely contributed to the spike in ZEV sales as over 108,600 of the ZEVs sold were EVs, an expansion of over 30% compared to the Q2 2025 EV sales.48 One research group estimated that the end of the tax credits will reduce EV sales nationwide by 16% to 38% relative to if the credit had been left in place. Governor Newsom announced in September 2025 that the state could not make up for the expiring federal tax credit,49 while GM and Ford canceled their extension of the federal EV rebate programs in early October.50
46 “Record-breaking quarter: California reaches historic high in ZEV sales.” Governor Gavin Newsom’s Office. October 13, 2025. Available at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/10/13/record-breaking-quarter-california-reaches-historic-high-in-zev-sales/
47 “Inflation Reduction Act & EVs.” Electrification Coalition. 2025 Update. Available at: https://electrificationcoalition.org/work/federal-ev-policy/inflation-reduction-act/
48 “California sets EV sales record in Q3 2025 ahead of tax credit expiry.” EV Infrastructure News. October 15, 2025. Available at: https://www.evinfrastructurenews.com/ev-networks/california-sets-ev-sales-record-in-q3-2025-ahead-of-tax-credit-expiry
49 “Newsom says California ‘can’t make up’ for expiring federal EV tax credit.” E&E News. September 23, 2025. Available at: https://www.eenews.net/articles/newsom-says-california-cant-make-up-for-expiring-federal-ev-tax-credit/
50 “GM & Ford Cancel Extension Of Federal $7,500 EV Rebates.” SF Gate: October 13, 2025. Available at: https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/gm-ford-cancel-extension-of-federal-7-500-ev-21098931.php
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