Note: Gross greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) includes fossil fuel CO2, with electric imports and international fuels (carbon dioxide equivalents) and noncarbon GHG emissions (in CO2 equivalents). Noncarbon GHG emissions are made up of Agriculture (CH4 and N2O), Soils, ODS substitutes, Semi-conductor manufacture (PFCs), Electric Utilities (SF6). Cement, Other Industrial Processes, Solid Waste Management, Landfill Gas, and Wastewater, Methane from oil and gas systems, Methane and N2O from Fossil Fuel Combustion.
Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Economic Sector and Activity
Analysis by CEC Economics
Highlights
- After meeting the Assembly Bill 32 2020 target in 2016, total greenhouse gas emissions4 were 371.1 MMTCO2e in 2022, which is 13.8% (-59.6 MMTCO2e) below the 1990 levels of 431 MMTCO2e.5 Total GHG emissions decreased by 2.4% (-9.3 MMTCO2e) from 2021 to 2022. The decrease in emissions is welcoming news after the rebound in 2021 from 2020 (+3.3%), when emissions slumped significantly as the COVID 19 pandemic halted major economic activities such as transportation.
- The largest decrease in GHG emissions from 2021 to 2022 came from the transportation sector, where emissions fell 3.6% (-5.4 MMTCO2e), followed by the electric power (imports) sector, which fell 11.9% or 2.4 MMTCO2e. Emissions from the industrial and agriculture sectors decreased by 1.9% (-1.7 MMTCO2e) and by 1.7% (-0.5 MMTCO2e), respectively from 2021 to 2022. Emissions from the residential sector increased slightly by 0.5% or 0.15 MMTCO2e from 2021 to 2022.
4 The GHG inventory was developed in accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National GHG Inventories, the internationally recognized standard for developing national GHG inventories. There exist other categories besides included emissions: excluded emissions, carbon dioxide from biogenic materials, emissions and removals from forest lands and wood products, and other emissions. Excluded emissions are discussed elsewhere in this chapter.
5 California Air Resources Board. AB 32 Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. September 28, 2018. Accessed September 30, 2024. Available at: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/ab-32-global-warming-solutions-act-2006
Challenges
- While emissions decreased in many sectors from 2021 to 2022, the commercial sector alone had a notable increase year-over-year (+3.7% or +0.8 MMTCO2e). The use of substitutes for ozone-depleting substances in refrigeration and air conditioning activities single-handedly accounts for the commercial sector’s increase in emissions.
- California’s emissions are more than 112.7 MMTCO2e (or 43.6%) above the Senate Bill 32 target of 40% below 1990 level by 2030. When California achieved the AB 32 in 2016, the state needed to decrease its emissions by 11.1 MMTCO2e per year to meet the SB 32 target by 2030.6 However, at the midway point, the state had managed to reduce emissions by 7.2 MMTCO2e per year between 2016 and 2022. This means to meet the SB 32 target by 2030, the state will need to double its current pace to reach 14.1 MMTCO2e per year from 2022 to 2030.
6 Legislative information on Senate Bill 32 (Pavley, 2016) can be found here: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB32