Highlight
- To reach California’s goal of 1.5 million ZEVs on the road by 2025,64 the number of new ZEVs registered will need to increase by 18.0 percent annually due to the falling sales induced by the pandemic, revised upward from 16.9 percent previously. For the first time in 2020, over two percent of the registered vehicles on road are ZEVs (2.19%).
64 Executive Order B-48-18, signed by former Governor Brown in January 2018. Available at: https://www.library.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/GovernmentPublications/executive-order-proclamation/39-B-48-18.pdf
Challenge
- Pre-pandemic, the continuous downward revisions implied that the state could potentially meet the imminent 2025 goal. The pandemic has not only reduced new ZEV sales but, more importantly, coincided with chip and battery shortages that could have negative effects on ZEV adoption.65 As demand for ZEVs continues to increase globally, especially in Europe and China, there will be considerable production pressures globally. At the current trajectory, it will be challenging to meet the 2030 goal of five million ZEVs, let alone the goal 100 percent in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks by 2035.66
65 Winton, N. “Battery Scarcity Could Dwarf Chip Shortage Impact On Global Auto Sales.” Forbes. July 27, 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2021/07/27/battery-scarcity-will-dwarf-chip-shortage-impact-on-global-auto-sales-report/?sh=351b4749363e
66 In September 2020, Governor Newsome signed Executive Order N-79-20, which shall be a goal of the State that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks will be zero-emission by 2035. The Executive Order has the following additional goals: (1) 100 percent of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the State be zero-emission by 2045 for all operations where feasible and by 2035 for drayage trucks; (2) California to transition to 100 percent zero-emission off-road vehicles and equipment by 2035 where feasible. Executive Order N-79-20 can be viewed here: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf
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