Highlight
- In 2021, the annual increase of zero-emission-vehicle registrations reached 2.8 percent—the highest registration amount recorded since 2015. For California to reach 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025, the state needs to increase registrations by 16.2 percent year-over-year from 2021 to 2025, revised downwards from the previously 18 percent requirements. Since 2020 (2.2%), almost three percent of the registered vehicles on-road were ZEVs (2.8%) in 2021.
Challenge
- Pre-pandemic, the continuous downward revisions imply that the state could potentially meet the imminent 2025 goal. Chip and battery shortages arose during the pandemic, which could have longer-term adverse effects on ZEV adoption, especially as demand for ZEVs continues to increase globally, particularly in Europe and China.96 With the goal of 100 percent in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks by 2035, the California Air Resources Board has identified annual zero-emission vehicle requirements.97 From 2026 to 2029, ZEV registrations are expected to grow at a pace of 11 percent, and 8 percent from 2029 to 2035. If the current ZEV upward adoption trend continues, California would likely be in a better position to achieve the GHG emissions reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, especially considering transportation is the largest-emitting sector.
96 S&P Global Commodity Insights. Around the tracks: Vehicle, chip makers cautious despite mostly bullish projections. September 20, 2022. Retrieved from: https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/metals/092022-around-the-tracks-chips-shortage-supply-chain-hrc-electric-vehicles-steel
97 In September 2020, Governor Newsom signed Executive Order N-79-20, which shall be a goal of the State that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks will be zero-emission by 2035. The Executive Order has the following additional goals: (1) 100 percent of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the State be zero-emission by 2045 for all operations where feasible and by 2035 for drayage trucks; (2) California to transition to 100 percent zero-emission off-road vehicles and equipment by 2035 where feasible. Executive Order N-79-20 can be viewed here: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf
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