Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Analysis by Beacon Economics
Highlight
- Since 2000, greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 17.4 percent (-80.3 MMTCO2e) in 2021. Due to the lifted pandemic restrictions, the state’s total emissions increased by 3.4 percent (+12.6 MMTCO2e) from 2021 to 2020, but remain 5.7 percent (-23.1 MMTCO2e) below the pre-pandemic 2019 level. However, further and faster reductions are crucial to meeting the state’s climate goals.
Challenge
- The annual average reduction required to meet the SB 32 goal of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 has increased to 4.4 percent in 2021. This is more than the annual reduction required in 2019 of 4.2 percent, and compared to the reduction required in 2020 of 3.6 percent. At the current trajectory with an annual average growth rate of 1.6 percent each year from 2016 to 2021, the state will take significantly more time to reach its SB 32 (258.4 MMTCO2e by 2030) and 2050 goals (84.1 MMTCO2e by 2050) than it did to reach the 2020 goal. Preliminary estimates for 2022 that are mandated by law and usually represent roughly 80 percent of emissions are projected to be 370.4 MMTCO2e, in 202210—a 2.8 percent (-10.9 MMTCO2e) decrease from 2021 total GHG emissions. However, the number is likely to change when the 2022 inventory numbers are released in 2024.
10 The estimate of AB 32 GHG Inventory emissions for 2022 is based solely on data reported and third-party verified to CARB pursuant to the Regulation for the Mandatory Reporting of GHG Emissions (MRR). It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be used for any policy making decisions or regulatory compliance. The 2022 estimate of AB 32 GHG Inventory emissions are calculated as 2022 MRR non-biogenic emissions, divided by the ratio of 2019-2021 MRR non-biogenic emissions to 2019-2021 AB 32 GHG Inventory emissions.
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