Data Source: California Air Resources Board, California Greenhouse Gas Inventory - by Scoping Plan
Analysis by Beacon Economics.
Highlight
- Every GHG emitting sector has cut their emissions drastically since 2000, except for the recycling & waste sector (+24.4% or 1.6 MMTCO2e higher), the high GWP sector (+223.2% or 14.7 MMTCO2e higher), and the agriculture sector (no change). The electric power sector took the lead with the most substantial decrease since 2000 with 40.5 percent (-42.4 MMTCO2e). In the transportation sector, emissions fell by 17.1 percent (-30.0 MMTCO2e). The industrial sector also saw a notable reduction of 20.3 percent (-18.9 MMTCO2e), while the residential sector and commercial sector recorded decreases of 17.5 percent (-5.3 MMTCO2e) and 1.5 percent (-0.2 MMTCO2e), respectively. Emissions from the residential sector experienced a second consecutive decrease in 2021 since 2019, down by 4.4 percent (-1.1 MMTCO2e) in 2021.
Challenge
- The electric power sector has historically seen dramatic reductions since 2000. Specifically, emissions from in-state generation have decreased by 27.7 percent (-16.3 MMTCO2e) and emissions from imports decreased by 56.8 percent (-26.1 MMTCO2e). As the grid becomes cleaner, further emissions cuts may become more difficult,8 making the work to reduce other sectors all the more critical. State officials have implemented new policies aimed at further reducing emissions. Notably, the state will establish a more rigorous low-carbon fuel standard and streamlining the siting and permitting processes for renewable energy projects.9 In 2021, the GHG emissions from commercial sector were 1.5 percent (-0.2 MMTCO2e) lower relative to 2000.
8 The state has approved additional natural gas power plants to come online recently due to electricity shortages. This is discussed in more detailed in the Renewables Chapter of the index.
9 CalMatters. Slashing greenhouse gases: California revises climate change strategy. November 16, 2022. Assessed Jan 18, 2024. Available at: https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/11/california-revises-climate-change-plan/
Opportunity
- Emissions from the residential sector experienced a second consecutive decrease in 2021 since 2019, and down by 4.4 percent (-1.1 MMTCO2e) in 2021. The main driver behind is the household use fuel combustion emissions, declined every year since 2019, by 2.3 percent over the year from 2019 to 2020, and decreased by another 2.4 percent from 2020 to 2021. The fuel combustion subsector was 4.6 percent below the 2019 levels. Fortunately, natural gas fuel combustion emissions in the residential sector have consistently decreased since 2019. From 2019 to 2021, the natural gas fuel combustion emissions in the residential sector fell by 4.5 percent. Specifically, natural gas fuel combustion emissions declined year-over-year by 1.8 percent in 2020 and further decreased by another 2.8 percent in 2021.
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